Budget Fog, Bond Pressure and the Confidence Gap:

Why Sellers Must Keep Moving

Across East Lothian and Edinburgh, homes are sitting longer and prices are being cut. Nearly one in five listings in East Lothian has already been reduced and in Edinburgh almost half have been repriced or shifted to fixed price. These are clear signs of a market that looks busy on the surface but is struggling to move underneath.

By May, more than one in five Edinburgh properties had been sitting unsold since 2024. Across the city’s six leading agencies, the average price adjustment rate was 54%. That is not a blip; it is a signal.

It signals a market where initial pricing strategies are not sticking. Sellers are forced to recalibrate midstream. Agents, many of whom dominate the landscape are reacting to stalled momentum rather than preventing it.

For homeowners, this is deeply frustrating. You were promised a price. You were told your home would fly. Yet weeks turn into months, viewings slow, offers do not materialise and the listing begins to age. Some agents still overvalue properties to win business. It is flattering at first, but when the price dream fades, you are left chasing a market that has already moved on.

At Mowatt, we believe property value ranges should be based on data, expertise and integrity, not guesswork or guess‑pleasing. The value of a home is not something to be negotiated in a living room. It is something to be measured carefully and reported with confidence.

As the autumn budget looms, that confidence is more important than ever.

Agents are fielding calls. Buyers are browsing. Sellers are whispering about plans. Few are committing. There is a sense of stasis, a collective holding of breath. It is no wonder: this year’s budget is casting long shadows.

There is talk of Capital Gains Tax being applied to primary residences, especially those held for decades. There is the threat of a mansion tax. Speculation continues about new levies that could reshape how property is owned, sold and inherited. Beneath it all, the bond markets are quietly signalling something even more fundamental: the cost of borrowing is high and it is affecting everyone.

When the UK government borrows money, typically through gilts, it sets what is known as the “risk‑free rate.” It is called that because the UK is not expected to default on its debt. This rate does not just affect government borrowing; it is the foundation for everything. Mortgage pricing, corporate loans, bank interest rates all flow from it. If the UK is borrowing at 4.7%, then mortgage lenders are not offering sub 3% deals. They are pricing upwards from that baseline, typically at 5.5–6% for two‑year fixed deals.

That is exactly what we have seen. Gilt yields have risen, and mortgage rates have followed. The Bank of England’s base rate has climbed from 0.25% in December 2021 to 5.25% in October 2025. Inflation has surged. Energy costs have ballooned. Disposable income has shrunk. For many households, mortgage payments and energy bills now consume the lion’s share of monthly budgets. This squeeze has a psychological effect. When your mortgage has jumped by hundreds of pounds a month and energy bills remain high, the idea of moving feels impossible. People hunker down. They do not renovate. They do not upsize. They do not move. Sellers hesitate, worried that buyers will not be able to afford their homes, or that launching into a cautious market will backfire.

The CGT question adds another layer of uncertainty. If the government does apply Capital Gains Tax to primary residences, what does that mean for long‑term owners? Will they really be expected to dig out receipts for a bathroom renovation done in 1997, a boiler installed in 2003, or a loft conversion signed off in 2010 but never formally documented? Most people never imagined they would need those records. Now, they are being told they might.

All this noise around property taxation obscures a deeper truth. These measures raise relatively little. Stamp Duty, Capital Gains Tax and any proposed mansion tax contribute only a small fraction of government revenue (less than 4% combined). The lion’s share comes from income tax, National Insurance and VAT. While property‑linked taxes may seem like easy wins for government, they risk triggering a disproportionate slowdown. Stall the housing market and you stall everything that moves with it: estate agents, surveyors, conveyancers, decorators, removals, renovations. The ripple effect is real. In trying to raise pennies, we risk losing pounds. If Rachel Reeves is serious about stimulating growth, she must weigh the psychological and transactional cost of taxing movement itself.

It is enough to make anyone freeze. The danger is clear: if everyone waits, the market stagnates. Stagnation helps no one.

Life does not pause for fiscal policy. People still pass away and estates must be settled. Families still grow and space must be found. Illness still reshapes priorities and downsizing becomes necessary. Relationships still change and assets must be divided. These are not theoretical scenarios; they are real, human moments that demand movement, not paralysis.

So how do you move forward without overexposing yourself?

That is where Mowatt’s Matchlist offers a quiet revolution.

Rather than launching into the open market with fanfare and vulnerability, the Matchlist allows you to test the waters discreetly. You list quietly. You gauge interest. You gather feedback. You do so without the scrutiny that can stigmatise a property before it has had a fair chance. If interest is strong, you may secure a sale that suits your timeline and your terms. If it is slow, you have learned something valuable without risk. You have not exposed your property to the full glare of the market. You have maintained anonymity and privacy. You have not invited assumptions. You have not lost control. Instead, you have gained insight. Perhaps the feedback suggests a pricing adjustment. Perhaps it highlights a few upgrades that would make all the difference. Perhaps it confirms that your home is exactly what buyers are looking for, but they need a nudge of confidence too.

In uncertain times, confidence is currency. Mowatt’s Matchlist gives you a way to build it-quietly, strategically and on your terms.

If you are sitting on the edge of a property decision, do not let fear freeze you. The property market must keep moving, because life does.

Mowatt’s Matchlist is here to help you move smarter.