"I'll Wait and See What the Budget Brings"

“I’ll wait and see what the Budget brings”

I’ve heard this a fair bit lately. Different buyers, same sentence. Someone’s viewed a place that ticks most of the boxes, they’re about ready to go...and then: “I’ll hang on til the Budget’s out the way.”

That's when my heart sinks. Not because it’s the wrong thing to say, it’s a reasonable instinct. An unknown date on the horizon breeds worry and holding off feels like the safe move. Only for most buyers, the Budget won’t impact their sums the way they fear. They’re bracing for a blow that, for a home up here, mostly isn’t coming.

I’m not an economist. I sell houses. Phil and I follow and read the blogs of people who talk sense on this - and here’s what I find myself explaining most.

The worry is usually tax and it’s usually the wrong Budget. The tax people brace for is stamp duty and stamp duty’s an English thing. Up here in Scotland you pay LBTT and if it’s a second property, Additional Dwelling Supplement on top. Both are set in Edinburgh, not London and both were set for this year back in the Scottish Budget. If either ever changes, it changes in Holyrood, and not on the 28th Oct. The thing you’re bracing for was never going to hit the home you’re buying.

Now, if you’re buying a second home or a let, or selling one, the picture is less tidy. The ADS bill is real, some UK taxes like capital gains or what you pay on rental income are Westminster’s - and those can bear on a property decision. If that’s you, it’s worth a proper word with your own accountant or solicitor rather than reading anything here as gospel.

Sometimes the fear is rates, that 'something gets said' and mortgages get dearer. Your fixed rate though, isn’t set by the Chancellor, or even by the Bank of England today. The mortgage folk we trust say it’s set by where markets reckon rates’ll be years out, which moves on all sorts: wars, oil, inflation. A Budget is one small piece of that. You can’t time it either way. What you can pin down is whether the payment works. Picture rates a couple of percent higher and a bit less coming in. Comfortable and you’re on solid ground. A struggle and no Budget saves you from that.

Then the bit that you might lose sight of; the house doesn’t wait for you. You sit tight for a date that won’t change your sums and the place is still sitting there for everyone else. Plenty of folk are hesitating on the same headlines. That’s company right up until one of them is brave and buys the house you’d quietly set your heart on. You don’t lose it to a tax change. You lose it to somebody who moved first.

So when someone says they’re waiting til the Budget is announced, the only thing worth getting to the bottom of is what they’re actually afraid of. A real thing that genuinely lands on them, fine, a fortnight costs nothing. If it’s harder to put a finger on, that’s the tell. Uncertainty on its own is uncomfortable enough to make waiting feel like doing something, when often it’s just waiting.

One last thing. I’m writing this before the Chancellor’s said a word, so treat it as a snapshot and as general thoughts rather than advice for your exact situation. Every buyer’s circumstances differ, so the specifics are a conversation for you and your solicitor or mortgage broker. I won’t pretend I know what’s coming and Phil would tell you to be wary of anyone in this trade who claims they do. If something unexpected turns up at the end of October, that beats anything I’ve written here.

For most folk buying a home in Scotland to live in and bracing for a 'stamp duty hit', they can stop fretting. It was never their tax to begin with.

If you fancy talking your move through, now or once the dust settles, that’s the chat Phil and I are here for. No crystal ball. Real numbers and a cup of tea. Or coffee - Phil prefers coffee.